On Monday, the meteorologist forecast a 20 percent chance of rain, so Sharmila took her umbrella to work. On Friday, he reported an 80 percent chance than it would not rain, so Sharmila left her umbrella at home. Sharmila’s behavior illustrates the impact of:

A. the representative heuristic
B. the belief perseverance phenomenon
C. overconfidence
D. the framing effect